Price Dynamics of Strategic Metals in the Context of the Low-Carbon and Digital Transition

Reports and studies warning of potential future tensions in raw material markets essential for the low-carbon and digital transition have multiplied in recent years. As a natural consequence, an increasing number of governments have adopted policies to secure their access to critical metals, while institutions, research laboratories, and international organizations have also intensified their focus on the issue. Underpinning these measures is a key assumption: potential supply constraints or bottlenecks in minerals and metals could drive price increases, potentially leading to localized shortages or demand destruction. 
Paradoxically, despite its significant implications for the deployment of low-carbon technologies and broader economic dynamics through inflationary pressures, the role of metal prices in the low-carbon transition remains relatively understudied. This thesis aims to explore how price expectations are formed within the evolving structural context of the low-carbon transition. 
The first part will contribute to a better understanding of the relationships between short-term and long-term market prices and the development of price projection scenarios over the transition period. The second part will integrate these projections into the foresight model used by IFPEN, assessing their impact on the deployment of low-carbon technologies. Finally, the thesis will examine the commercial and macroeconomic consequences of metal price fluctuations.

Keywords: Critical metals, prices, econometrics

• Academic supervisor    Prof Valérie MIGNON, EconomiX-CNRS, ORCID : 000-0002-5578-1241
• Doctoral School    ED396 EOS, Université Paris Nanterre 
• IFPEN supervisor    Dr, HDR, Emmanuel HACHE, ORCID : 0000-0002-3875-628X
• PhD location    IFPEN, Rueil-Malmaison, France
• Duration and start date    3 years, starting in the fourth quarter 2025 (Novembre 3)
• Employer    IFPEN
• Academic requirements    University Master degree in Energy Economics, Macroeconomics, or Environmental Economics   
• Language requirements    English level B2 (CEFR)    
• Other requirements    Econometrics and modeling

To apply, please send your cover letter and CV to the IFPEN supervisor indicated here below.