Globalization versus energy fragmentation: Modeling geopolitical risks to secure the low-carbon transition

The PhD aims to develop a methodological and operational framework for integrating geopolitical proximity and risk into prospective energy system modeling, with the objective of anticipating supply strategies in the context of increasing fragmentation. The work will unfold in three stages. The first step consists in reviewing and reconstructing measures of geopolitical proximity from both theoretical and empirical approaches, drawing on data such as UN votes, governance indicators and trade flows. The goal is to test the relevance of these indicators in explaining variations in energy commodity exchanges, and to design a composite index combining political alignment, geographical distance, institutional stability and bilateral relations. The second step focuses on integrating this indicator into IFPEN’s TIMES model. Supply constraints will be adapted by introducing a “security cost” proportional to geopolitical risk, calibrated on empirical evidence from past supply crises. This integration must preserve the techno-economic consistency of the model while enriching it with a geopolitical dimension. The third step will involve building and comparing contrasted geo-fragmentation scenarios, ranging from a major conflict leading to a sudden rupture with a strategic supplier, to progressive fragmentation, or the strengthening of regional coalitions. These scenarios will be confronted with a baseline case without geopolitical constraints, to analyze their impacts on the energy mix, supply security, costs and resilience. A multi-criteria assessment will allow comparison of the trajectories across different dimensions of energy security and provide operational recommendations on robust strategies to secure the low-carbon transition in a fragmented world.

Keywords: modeling, geopolitical risks, energy systems

• Academic supervisor    Prof Valérie MIGNON, EconomiX-CNRS, ORCID : 000-0002-5578-1241 
• Doctoral School    ED396 EOS, Université Paris Nanterre
• IFPEN supervisor    Dr, HDR, Emmanuel HACHE, ORCID : 0000-0002-3875-628X
• PhD location    IFPEN, Rueil-Malmaison, France
• Duration and start date    3 years, starting in the fourth quarter 2026 (November 2)
• Employer    IFPEN
• Academic requirements    University Master degree in energy economics, geopolitics or environment
• Language requirements    English level B2 (CEFR)    
• Other requirements    Marked interest for modeling and geopolitical issues

To apply, please send your cover letter and CV to the IFPEN supervisor indicated here below.